October baseball has arrived, and the Chicago White Sox are riding a wave of a 2-0 series win in Houston into a familiar American League Central matchup with the Cleveland Guardians.
Chicago swept the Astros in the Wild Card Series, earning its first postseason series victory since 2005. Now the White Sox face Cleveland in a best-of-five ALDS, with Game 1 set for Saturday at Progressive Field.
The White Sox won the season series 7-6 but wow, was it a tightly contested matchup. The White Sox outscored the Guardians by just one run (58-57) over those thirteen games. Over half those games (7 of 13) were one score games so you can bet we’ll see some close games.
These two teams make for a fun matchup but their styles are very different. Cleveland has been a mainstay in the postseason and they are built on run Prevention. They definitely have the edge on the mound, as you can see from the season comparison between the two teams.
Pitching Breakdown
Cleveland’s pitching staff has been incredibly stable. Four starters started 30+ games: Parker Messick, Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Joey Cantillo. The Guardians are the only team in MLB with four starters each making 30+ starts. They also used the lowest number of total pitchers throughout the season with just 25 pitchers used (only Padres used less).
Below we show just how incredible the Guardians’ pitching stability has been this season. They have both the lowest number of pitchers on the IL and the lowest number of IL days.
Parker Messick and Gavin Williams have been announced as the Game 1 and Game 2 starters. Messick has emerged as the ace of the staff. Messick posted a .215 batting average against and Williams had a .212, so the Game 1 and Game 2 starters have been tough all season.
The bullpen is another major strength of this Cleveland team. Cade Smith has been tremendous again this year and sits tied for the league lead in saves at 41. His 36.3% strikeout rate puts him in the 99th percentile in MLB and his fastball-splitter combo makes him tough on both righties and lefties. Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski, and Tim Herrin all recorded 15+ holds and serve as important bullpen pieces for the Guardians to bridge the gap to Smith. Sabrowski leads all Guardians pitchers with a .153 batting average against.
Hitting Breakdown
The White Sox have the edge at the plate. The Sox rank 5th in MLB in both Runs Scored and wRC+, so it’s fair to say they were the 5th best offense in MLB. The Guardians rank 24th in runs and 21st in wRC+. They rank 27th in home runs, so power is not their strength but they do rank 8th in walk percentage, which is a big reason that the wRC+ ranking is as high as it is.
The Guardians have struggled to score runs this year but that’s been pretty typical for them. Chase DeLauter has led the way. He leads the team in wRC+ (131) and is second in both home runs (16) and RBI (67). Steven Kwan is a mainstay in the leadoff spot and Jose Ramirez is the wildcard. He’s had a rough year (.235/.320/.368), but he’s still Jose Ramirez. With DeLauter, Kwan and Travis Bazzana as left-handed hitters at the top of the Guardians order, it’s not hard to see why Will Venable is going back to lefty Hagen Smith to start Game 1 for the Sox. Cleveland ranked 18th in batting average vs righties and 28th vs lefties. For slugging, it’s 26th vs righties and 29th vs lefties.
Series Schedule
| Date | Away | Home | Start Time (CT) | Network |
| Sat Oct 3 | White Sox | Guardians | 12:00 PM | TBS/truTV |
| Mon Oct 5 | White Sox | Guardians | 4:00 PM | TBS/truTV |
| Wed Oct 7 | Guardians | White Sox | 3:00 PM | TBS/truTV |
| *Thu Oct 8 | Guardians | White Sox | 4:00 PM | TBS/truTV |
| *Sat Oct 10 | White Sox | Guardians | 4:00 PM | TBS/truTV |
This should be a fun and incredibly competitive ALDS. The White Sox have the offensive advantage, while Cleveland has the clear edge on the mound, setting up a classic strength-vs.-strength matchup. After playing 13 games that were separated by just one run overall and seeing seven decided by a single score, there’s little reason to expect anything different in October. Every game should be a grind, and with both teams familiar with each other, the smallest mistake could decide the series. The White Sox have already shown they can win in October, but now they face their toughest challenge yet. If their offense can find a way to break through Cleveland’s pitching, Chicago has a real shot to advance. Expect a close series, expect some late-inning drama, and expect this one to come down to the wire.