Date: Thursday, March 19th
Time: 8:25 PM CT
Watch: TNT
Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena (Greenville, SC)
The Illini will open up their sixth consecutive NCAA Tournament against a familiar foe on the sideline. Illinois will face off with former Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery and the Penn Quakers.
The Quakers punched their ticket dramatically by upsetting top-seeded Yale 88-84 in overtime in the Ivy League Tournament final. T.J. Power hit a clutch tying three-pointer with one second left to force OT.
Below we see the impressive season Penn’s had in McCaffery’s first season.
Penn began the year ranked 278th in KenPom and now sees themselves at 150. An incredible improvement of 128 spots! That’s the 6th largest increase in the country. Major wins over Saint Joseph’s and Drexel early in the season set the Quakers up for a much improved season and a 3rd place regular season Ivy League finish.
Penn Strengths
3-point shooting: The Quakers rank 11th in the country in three point percentage. Although they shoot it well from deep, they do not shoot it well from inside the arc; ranking 346th in 2-point percentage.
Ball Control: Penn ranks 2nd in the Ivy League in offensive turnover percentage and 1st in the Ivy League in defensive turnover percentage.
Penn Personnel
Penn Quakers Depth Chart (by % at position over last 5 games)
Ethan Roberts missed the Ivy League Tournament with a concussion but he was the Quakers leading scorer over the regular season at 16.9 PPG. He attempts the third most 3’s on the team and shoots it at 38.3%. We’ll see if he’s a full go for this one or not.
TJ Power is the guy everyone will be talking about. He went for 44 points and 14 rebounds in the Ivy League championship game, including a game-tying three at the regulation buzzer to send the game to overtime. This following a 16 points, 12 rebound performance in the semifinal. Power is a legitimate high-major talent, a former top 40 recruit (#32 on ESPN, #17 on 247 – 2 spots above Andrej Stojakovic) in the 2023 class. He spent his first year at Duke and second year at Virginia before transferring to Penn this season.
Michael Zanoni is the other high-volume 3-point shooter for the Quakers. He’s taken the second-most threes behind Power, and shoots it at 39.8%. They’ll run a lot of pin downs for him. He’ll take threes and mid-range but isn’t much of a creator for others.
AJ Levine has started every game at the point this season. He’s the main reason the Quakers led the Ivy League in creating turnovers as he averaged 1.9 steals per game. He also initiates the Quaker offense and leads them at 4.0 assists per game. But at just 6’0, he’ll be at a height disadvantage in this one. He is not a great shooter at just 30% from deep and without the ability to finish against the much larger Illini defense.
The 5-spot has been shared between junior starter Augustus Gerhart and freshman backup Dalton Scantlebury. Both stand at 6’9 so the Illini will have another advantage inside and neither one has attempted a 3-pointer this year. Gerhart has more offensive skill but the defense is lacking. Scantlebury is the better rim protector, but is still just a freshman and not a great finisher.
Off the bench, watch out for Cam Thrower. The senior who started in place of Ethan Roberts in the Ivy League Tournament was the only other Penn player in double figures against Yale. Thrower had 19-points, including a big time three in overtime.
The other players in the rotation are 6’7 forward Lucas Lueth and 6’4 freshman guard Jay Jones. Lueth has some size but doesn’t bring much on the offensive end. Jones doesn’t see much usage, but as a bigger guard he does rebound well and has shown a decent shot from both mid-range and deep.
Biggest Keys
Illinois’ overwhelming size and rebounding advantage
Illinois is widely described as the tallest team in the country, featuring the 7-foot-plus Ivisic brothers in the frontcourt and strong rebounding (top-10 nationally in rebounding margin). Penn struggles on the glass and lacks comparable height/athleticism. If Illinois dominates the interior, controls second-chance points, and limits Penn’s possessions, this could turn into a blowout.
Illinois’ elite offense vs. Penn’s defensive limitations
The Illini boast the highest adjusted offensive efficiency in KenPom history (around 131+), driven by high-volume 3-point shooting (over 30 attempts per game, led by freshman star Keaton Wagler at 40%+ from deep), deep scoring (multiple players in double figures), and low turnovers. Penn 0-2 vs High Majors (Providence 81-106, Villanova 63-90).
Game Outlook
Illinois has a clear edge in size, depth, and offensive firepower, and if they control the glass, this game should tilt their way quickly. Penn’s shooting and discipline make them dangerous, but the Illini’s ability to generate second chances and score at all three levels is a tough gap to overcome. Expect Illinois to take care of business and move on.
Predicted Scores
KenPom: 86-65 Illinois
Me: 83-64 Illinois