Tip Off: Thursday March 28th, 2024 – 9:09 PM CT
Venue: TD Garden – Boston, MA
After beating Duquesne 89-63 in the second round, the Fighting Illini have now reached their first Sweet Sixteen since 2005.
Illinois now ranks first in KenPom in offensive efficiency. Iowa State ranks number one in defensive efficiency which makes for a heck of a storyline ahead of Thursday night in Boston.
That top defense vs top offense will be the big talking point in this one. One potential advantage for the Cyclones is the turnover battle. 25.5% of Iowa State’s defensive possessions end in a turnover (ranks 2nd in nation). For the Illini, the offensive boards should be an advantage. That’s one area Iowa State’s had some struggles and one of Illinois’ biggest strengths.
Player Personnel
It all starts in the backcourt with Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert. Lipsey leads the Cyclones in assists and is 80th in the country in assist rate. Lipsey is also second on the team at 12.5 points per game. He’s the creator and most important focus for the Illini defense. Defensively, Lipsey wears out opposing guards. He ranks sixth in the country in steal rate.
Gilbert leads Iowa State in scoring. He’s a driver first but has knocked down 35 threes at 34.3%. He looks for contact on drives and spends a lot of time at the free throw line (ranks 100th in country in free throw rate). Defensively, he ranks 65th in steal rate.
Freshman Milan Momcilovic has Dirk Nowitzki type game. Fadeaways, threes and a tough shot-maker. At 6’8, Momcilovic can bail the Cyclones out of some bad offensive possessions. He also leads Iowa State in Free Throw percentage (81.8%).
Robert Jones is what I’d refer to a culture player. He’s a tough, energy guy and a menace on the boards. He ranks 100th in the country in offensive rebound percentage. He didn’t have much touch around the rim when he came in but has developed scoring around the basket.
Tre King will round out the Cyclones starting lineup. A 6’7 forward and the Cyclones leading rebounder (5.3 RPG). Will shoot the three (27.7%) but is a much more effective scorer around the rim.
Curtis Jones brings a scoring punch off the bench. He actually leads the team in 3-pointers made on the season (at 34.3% clip).
Hason Ward is a major athlete who will basically only score on dunks and lobs. Serves as shot-blocker and rebounder on the defensive end.
Demarion Watson has played double-digit minutes in each of Iowa State’s first two NCAA Tournament games but is yet to even attempt a shot. As a 6’7 guard, Watson is on the court to provide defensive length. He’s 2-2 from three on the year so he may be able to shoot but that hasn’t been his role.
Keys
Limit turnovers – Especially live-ball turnovers. The Cyclones feast on turnovers and can struggle on offense. But if the turnovers fuel breakouts and easy buckets then the Cyclones get on a roll.
Attack the Right Guys – Lipsey and Gilbert are great on-ball defenders, but can we get the ball to Coleman Hawkins outside against Robert Jones. I’m not sure the Cyclones have faced a team with as many offensive weapons as the Illini have. Take advantage of that. In addition, attacking the offensive boards will be key for Illinois.
Push It – Same as the last two rounds. The Illini face a team that wants to slow it down. Take advantage and run any time the Illini get the chance.
Wrap Up
With Illinois’ focus on preventing threes, it’s going to be difficult for Iowa State to really build a lead unless the Illini have major turnover issues. If Illinois can limit the live-ball turnovers and dig in defensively like they have over the last two games, the Illini could find themselves in the Elite Eight.