Year 3 of the Drew Valentine era. Year 2 was a big step back in terms of national rankings. The Ramblers finished 10-21 and 4-14 in their first season in the Atlantic 10. The combination of losing a lot of key players (five seniors), a new conference and a still new coach created a rough season.
The problems came on both the offensive and defensive sides of the floor. The turnovers have to be the most obvious. They were astronomically high. The Ramblers finished 358th in the country in turnover percentage (19.8%)! Take a look at the bottom 10 schools below. That is not company you want to be around in College Basketball.
Turnover margin (Opponent Turnovers – Loyola Turnovers) tells a similar story (below). You can see the trend line improving as the year progressed.
The below plot looks at the offensive and defensive efficiency of all the teams in the Atlantic 10 last season. You’ll see Loyola near that top left corner where you don’t want to be, bad offense, bad defense. The model programs are on the exact opposite end of the spectrum (bottom right corner): Dayton and VCU.
They finished second to last in the A-10 in defensive efficiency. Coach Valentine felt like the defense lacked fire and physicality last season.
The lack of fire and aggressiveness Valentine talked about can be seen when we look at many times the Ramblers got to the free throw line. They shot more free throws that their opponents in just nine of their 31 games. In the nine games they shot more, they were 6-3, while in games they allowed more free throws attempts they were just 4-17! They were outshot at the line by 19 attempts twice last season: Dayton and VCU.
Drew Valentine is hoping the growth in returners paired with some transfers will fuel a big improvement this season.
Newcomers
Greg Dolan – 6’3 Cornell grad student transfer, 2nd team All-Ivy League. Was a key part of an offense that ranked 50th in the country in offensive efficiency and he shot the three at a 42.2% clip (43-102).
Des Watson – 6’5 junior, Davidson transfer. Offers another big guard option with a couple years of eligibility left. Started 18 games for the Wildcats last year and played at least 20 minutes in every game. Had a big performance in the A-10 Tournament with 17 points in a win over St. Bonaventure.
Dame Adelekun – Dartmouth grad transfer, was 2nd team All-Ivy League and the clear best player on the Big Green last season. Led the Ivy League in defensive rebounding rate, but also finished second in assist rate and block rate.
Patrick Mwamba – 6’7 Oral Roberts grad transfer, enters his sixth college season. Can shoot, rebound and defend multiple positions. Didn’t start last year but played in all 31 games on a team that went 30-5 and 18-0 in conference. Scored 20 points in the Summit League championship against North Dakota State. Also scored 8 points in 19 minutes in the NCAA Tournament loss to Duke.
Miles Rubin – Highly touted freshman out of Simeon. 6’8 forward was ranked 185th nationally by 247Sports.
Returners
Philip Alston – Led Loyola in scoring, rebounding and blocks last season. The clear #1 option on the offensive end. Scored in double figures in 25 of Loyola’s 31 games last season.
Braden Norris – Seems like he’s been here forever. This will be his sixth collegiate season. He’s the point guard and undisputed leader of the Ramblers. The hope is Greg Dolan and Des Watson can make it easier on Norris and help with the ball handling duties that plagued Loyola last season.
Tom Welch – Solid fifth year veteran forward who knows the system. He’s a good frontcourt support piece alongside Alston. Scored in double figures in nine games last season.
Ben Schwieger, Jalen Quinn and Jayden Dawson are guards who can benefit from last year’s struggles in their second go-around. If one of these guys can take a big step forward it could be huge for the Ramblers.
Depth Chart
Schedule
Loyola will open up with a challenge right out of the gate as they take on a Final Four team from a year ago in Florida Atlantic on November 8th at Wintrust Arena. The home opener is November 11th vs Eastern Illinois, then they’ll host UIC on November 14th. They’ll take on Creighton and then either Colorado State or Boston College in the Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City on November 22nd and 23rd. Harvard at Gentile Arena on December 2nd is an intriguing one and South Florida in Atlanta on December 17th wraps up the big non-conference games.
Conference play opens at Saint Louis on January 3rd. The A-10 schedule is promising as they only face off with Dayton, VCU and St. Bonaventure once a piece.
What Loyola must prove this year is that last season was an outlier. Finishing near the bottom of the A-10 is not acceptable. There were plenty of valid excuses for last year, but we need to see a giant step back in the right direction this season. I’d be disappointed with a bottom half finish in the A-10.