Tip Off: 11:15 AM
Venue: Barclays Center – Brooklyn, NY
The NCAA Tournament committee did the Wildcats no favors in their potential path to the Sweet Sixteen. The Cats will have to beat two teams from last year’s Final Four in Florida Atlantic and UConn in order to advance to Northwestern’s first Sweet Sixteen in program history.
Although Florida Atlantic made the Final Four last year, they very nearly didn’t even win their first-round matchup against Memphis. They then benefitted by getting Fairleigh Dickinson in the second round.
This year’s FAU team had a big double OT win over Arizona on December 23rd but they’ve also had losses to Bryant, Florida Gulf Coast, and bowed out of the American Tournament with a loss to a 16-19 Temple squad.
FAU ranks 16th in the country in offensive efficiency. They rank 17th in 2-point percentage, 84th in 3-point efficiency, and 12th in shot quality offense. Their efficiency numbers are so high due to a high rim & 3 rate (25th in the country). That means they rarely settle in the mid-range and focus on high-quality looks. One of their best qualities is that they have a lot of different scoring options.
On defense, the Owls switch 1-4 and want to make opponents score 1-on-1. Boo Buie will likely have to make some plays on his own on Friday. One of FAU’s defensive weaknesses is rebounding, specifically when Goldin is out of the game. A weakness I think the Cats can attack is their ball screen coverage when on the 5-man. FAU plays a deep drop coverage, which is something that will give Boo Buie space for floaters and Ryan Langborg space for that mid-range pullup.
Florida Atlantic Personnel
The Owls return all but one of their rotation from last season. Depth and versatility is what coach Dusty May loves about his teams the past two seasons.
It all starts with 6’4 guard Johnell Davis. Davis leads the Owls at 18.2 points per game this season but he’s also the teams second leading rebounder with 6.3 rebounds per game. With the Owls balanced attack, Davis scores a fair amount on off-ball actions and spot-up shots. He leads FAU with a 42.5% 3-point percentage. FAU we’ll look to Davis when they need a bucket.
FAU’s leading rebounder is 7’1 Vladislav Goldin (6.8 rebounds per game). He’s the second leading scorer at 15.6 points per game and has scored 20+ points in seven of his last eight. He doesn’t have much shooting range but is a force around the basket. Expect the post double from Northwestern. That could be a challenge as Goldin does most of his work in the post before he gets the ball. The position battle with Luke Hunger and Blake Preston before Goldin gets the ball will be vital. If Matthew Nicholson can go, that’d be great, but I’m not expecting he’ll be ready (foot).
The 3rd option is Alijah Martin. At 6’2, Martin’s athleticism helps him play bigger than a typical 6’2 guard. He’s an improved shooter and probably FAU’s best defender.
Brandon Weatherspoon is a lefty and efficient scorer who fits into FAU’s plethora of capable guards. He can knock down the three, score around the basket and defend the perimeter.
Jalen Gaffney is a former UConn transfer, pass-first but can score it. Closest thing to a true point guard on their roster. Similarly, Bryan Greenlee is close to a point guard but will do what is needed of him. Can shoot if left open from deep or off the dribbling inside the arc.
Giancarlo Rosado will play the backup big behind Goldin but he gives a much different look. He will shoot the mid-range and run a ton of dibble hand-off actions. FAU can look like a different offensive team based off which big is in. He won’t ever play with Goldin.
Nick Boyd is a lefty that does whatever they need him to. He can shoot it, drive and defend. He’s a role guy off the bench that is a big part of the Owl’s depth. He’s been in double figures nine times. If others struggle, Boyd can spark FAU’s like he did with a season-high six threes against Tulane on January 11th.
Brenen Lorient gives them a different look at 6’9 and more of a mobile wing. He’ll be out there for his defense alone, he may not even take a shot.
The Owls have a whole bunch of solid 6’0+ guards that have bought in to doing what is needed of them to help this team win. Johnell Davis is the clear 1st option, the bigs are option two and Alijah Martin is option three. After that, the guards are pretty much interchangeable but they all can provide a spark on any given night. All six of the guards in the FAU rotation have hit 3+ threes in a game this year and three of the six have hit six threes in a game.
Keys
Don’t let Goldin catch deep. If gets position deep, it’s two points. The fight before he gets the ball is huge.
Attack the drop coverage on ball screens. Boo Buie and Ryan Langeborg need to have big days.
No catch and shoot 3’s – the cats have been good in scramble situations this season and need to be again in this one. FAU is not nearly as dangerous creating for themselves off the bounce, especially after Johnell Davis.
Wrap Up
Northwestern has played a ton of close games this year and I don’t see any reason this game will be different. FAU hasn’t blown out opponents and shouldn’t force many turnovers from the Cats. Northwestern definitely has a shot to steal this one as a 9 seed.