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Illinois Basketball Season Preview

Last year’s team had a ton of skill but never seemed to mesh. In fact, they may have peaked in November and December with neutral site wins over UCLA and Texas. From an outside perspective it never seemed like they were a true team. With Skyy Clark, Jayden Epps, RJ Melendez and Matthew Mayer gone, there isn’t the same feeling according to the team.

I listened to Brad Underwood address their early practices this year and he said, “It’s very nice to have us things and not me things”. That only confirms the disfunction that went on with last year squad. One of the most frustrating aspects of last year was shot selection, particularly early in the shot clock. It’s incredible Illinois still finished 68th in offensive efficiency given they finished 335th in 3-point percentage (30.8%). The Illini also ranked 280th in assist-rate – the lowest of Underwood’s career. A low assist rate and bad shot selection only support that last year’s team was selfish.

Below we see offensive and defensive efficiency ranks amongst the Big Ten teams last year:

Last year’s team had the ability to be much further to the bottom right, but ended up stuck in the middle, with the offensive side of the floor holding them back.

Newcomers

Marcus Domask – 6’6 Southern Illinois grad transfer – A 3-time all-league player in the Missouri Valley. Can score it, shoot it, pass it and is strong enough to compete in the Big Ten. He’ll steal some extra possessions on offensive rebounds too.

Quincy Guerrier – 6’8 Oregon grad transfer – brings rebounding and a high-motor. Can stretch it out a shoot the three, but not going to be one of the top 3-point options. Only shot 58.1% from free-throw line last year.

Justin Harmon – 6’4 Utah Valley grad transfer, originally from Chicago – tough, versatile, veteran, not a great shooter (32.6% from three last year) but can shoot it.

Freshmen Amani Hansberry and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn join redshirt freshman Nico Moretti. Moretti can help in the point guard duties and improve the lack of ball movement that hurt this offense last year. He’s really good in ball screens and a really good passer. Gibbs-Lawhorn offers another option at point guard. More of a scoring point guard in high school, but he looks to play a more complete game in college. It may take him a little time to adjust to the pace, but he’s a talented guard.

Hansberry could end up getting a lot of playing time the way he’s been looking. You don’t have to run any plays for him and he can end up with a double-double. He runs the floor hard and rebounds like crazy. He’s been working on the three-ball and if he gets that going he’ll be a major problem. I’m really excited to watch him develop.

Returners

Terrence Shannon Jr. and Ty Rodgers return to man the backcourt. It looks like Rodgers will begin the year at the 1, which makes this starting lineup huge and a potential nightmare for opposing offenses. Rogers can hopefully play more of a facilitator role offensively – again the Illini need to improve that assist-rate. Shannon may be better suited off-the-ball so this may help put him in the best position. He’s got all-American potential, can get to the line a lot and worked on his shot a lot.

Sencire Harris also returns to the backcourt. Harris brings great energy on the defensive end. Luke Goode will hopefully be a huge help to the 3-point percentage. He never got into a good flow after missing a ton of time with the broken foot in last year’s Kansas scrimmage.

Coleman Hawkins returns as a super versatile defender with his length and athleticism. He didn’t have the breakout offensive year last year and shot just 28% from three, but it seemed like a lot of those shots we’re not in rhythm. He’s a lot better shooter with his feet set.

Dain Dainja is back down low. He was a dominant force in the paint and on the glass, needs to improve free throw shooting, but gives opponents a different look when he’s in there.

Depth Chart
Schedule Highlights – Early Season

November 6th vs Eastern Illinois – 1st Game

November 14th vs Marquette – Gavitt Games

December 2nd @ Rutgers – Big Ten Opener

December 5th vs Florida Atlantic – Jimmy V Classic

December 9th @ Tennessee

December 22nd vs Missouri – Braggin Rights

January 2nd vs Northwestern – Big Ten play resumes

Full Schedule

Summary

This team has the chance to have a much better season. There’s a lot of experience and hopefully a better team environment. They appear to be less selfish and still have top level defensive ability. They took a trip to Spain this Summer and Underwood praised their physicality. Shannon is an All-American candidate, he’s capable of carrying the team, and there are plenty of other skilled players like Hawkins, Dainja, Domask and Goode. Illini fans have high expectations for the team, including a return to the tournament and the possibility of reaching the second weekend, thanks to the team’s experience (four t5th year guys) and lots of offensive and defensive versatility.

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